U.S. Corporate Profit Growth
Corporate profits with IVA & CCAdj · YoY
The macro picture, live
Liquidity, rates, credit, breadth, valuation, sentiment — about thirty indicators we watch every day. Cached server-side, refreshed daily after close.
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Grey vertical bands = US recessions (NBER). Hover any chart's i icon for the underlying definition + source.
Risk-On Score
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Market Regime
Mode
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Methodology: 10 risk-on / risk-off indicators across rates, breadth, liquidity, and structure. Soft fires earlier; Strict requires full veto confirmation.
RISK ON 60–100
WATCH 45–59
CAUTION 30–44
DE-RISK 0–29
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See the historical Risk-On chart + the 10 indicators driving today's call
Free with email. Past sell + buy signals on the US Tech 100, the active indicator components, and the full methodology decomposition.
TrendArc Regime Indicator™
US Tech 100
Above line = DE-RISK sell Under line = BUY (rare deep low)
Range:
Indicator components — current state
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₿
Bitcoin Regime Indicator™
Regime
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DistributeAccumulate
BTC price (log) with rare buy/sell signals
Range:
Sell Buy ┊ halving · Rare, high-conviction signals from an amplitude-adaptive valuation model + the 500-day halving gate. Not financial advice.
Top Highlights
Most relevant nowUS 500 Earnings Revisions
Net EPS-growth breadth vs its normal · with US 500 price
US Liquidity Index
WALCL − TGA − RRP, in $B
High Yield OAS
ICE BofA HY option-adjusted spread, %
Market Leadership & Breadth
5 charts · free with sign-upLarge-Cap Momentum
MTUM − β·SPY · β-neutral daily excess · blue leading / red cracking
Growth vs Value
IWF − β·IWD · β-neutral daily excess · purple growth / orange value
Mega-Cap Concentration — Rate of Change
% change of SPY ÷ RSP concentration index · positive = narrowing breadth
US Tech 100 Real Breadth
% of US Tech 100 names above their 50-DMA
US Tech 100 1-Month % Change
Rolling 21-trading-day return · oversold < −10% / overbought > +10%
Free with email
Sign up free to unlock the Leadership & Breadth charts
Momentum, growth-vs-value, and mega-cap concentration — β-neutral and self-updating daily. Free with email.
Liquidity & Macro Backbone
8 chartsGlobal CB Liquidity vs US Tech 100
Central bank balance sheets ($B, shifted +70d) vs US Tech 100 (log RHS)
US Liquidity vs BTC
WALCL − TGA − RRP − foreign RRP − BTFP + RE Loans (shifted +84d) vs bitcoin price
M2 Money Supply
Level ($B) with YoY % change bars
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
Total assets ($B) with YoY % change
Treasury General Account
Treasury balance at the Fed, $B
Overnight Repo (RPONTSYD)
Reverse repo facility, trailing 12 months
US Bank Securities Holdings
Treasuries + agency MBS on US bank balance sheets — eSLR-sensitive liquidity gauge
The Liquidity Cascade (Why Invest in Megatrends)
A shrinking workforce → rising federal debt → an expanding Fed balance sheet → rising global liquidity → rising high-beta assets (Megatrend Investments & US Tech). Each link is connected.
Labor Force Participation vs Federal Debt
US LFPR, % (L) · US debt as % of GDP (R, inverted)
Fed Net Liquidity vs Federal Debt
Fed net liquidity, $B (L, log) · US debt as % of GDP (R, log)
Fed Net Liquidity vs Global Liquidity
US Fed net liquidity, $B (L) · total global central-bank liquidity, $B (R)
Own Growth, Not Cash
Indexed to 100, log · liquidity, semis, tech & gold vs USD/EUR/JPY in gold
Rates & Credit
6 charts2s10s Yield Spread
10Y minus 2Y Treasury, %. Zero line = inversion
US Treasury Yield Curve
3M→30Y · today vs 3M / 1Y / 2Y ago
Global 10Y Sovereign Yields
US · Germany · Japan · UK · benchmark 10Y, %
10Y − 3M Spread
The Fed's preferred recession gauge · zero = inversion
Corporate Credit Spreads
Moody's Baa & Aaa over 10Y, % · since 1986
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
Inflation-protected 10Y yield · real cost of capital, %
Inflation, Commodities, FX
3 chartsCPI Year-over-Year
Headline CPI, % YoY
WTI Crude Oil
Spot price, $/bbl
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Trade-weighted dollar
Activity & Sentiment
5 chartsFinancial Conditions (NFCI, inverted)
Chicago Fed NFCI · shifted +6mo · leads ISM
ISM Manufacturing PMI
50 line = expansion / contraction
Building Permits YoY
Rate-sensitive real-economy lead · FRED PERMIT
Heavy Duty Truck Sales
Class 8 truck sales, units (recession indicator)
BofA Fund Manager Cash %
Monthly survey — contrarian sentiment gauge
Fear & Greed — Stocks
CNN composite, 0–100
Fear & Greed — Crypto
Alternative.me composite, 0–100
Tape Internals
6 chartsGamma Exposure (GEX)
SqueezeMetrics dealer gamma, $B
US 500 Median Short Interest
Median SI across the index, %
Mania Indicator
% of US stocks that doubled in a quarter · long-run median ≈ 0.2%
MOVE Index
Treasury implied volatility
Tech ETF Net Money-Flow (proxy)
XLK weekly accumulation/distribution, $B · Chaikin money-flow proxy · not fund flows / not retail
Investor Margin Debt ÷ Market Cap
FINRA margin debt as % of total US market cap · leverage gauge · monthly since 1997
Asia Exports (Leading)
2 chartsTaiwan Exports YoY
% YoY — leads global goods cycle
Korea Exports YoY
% YoY — coincident global trade signal
Valuation
2 chartsShiller CAPE
Cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio, US 500
US 500 Information Technology — Forward P/E
Sector forward 12-month P/E · 5-year lookback · vs 5Y & 10Y averages
Assets ÷ M2 (Real-Money Pricing)
4 chartsUS Tech 100 ÷ M2
US Tech 100 priced in money supply
Gold ÷ M2
Gold priced in money supply
BTC ÷ M2
Bitcoin priced in money supply
FX ÷ M2
DXY, CHF, EUR vs US money supply
Benchmarks
1 chartQQQ + SPY (1 year)
Indexed to 100 at start
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