U.S. Corporate Profit Growth
Corporate profits with IVA & CCAdj · YoY
The macro picture, live
Liquidity, rates, credit, breadth, valuation and sentiment: about thirty indicators we watch every day. Cached server-side, refreshed daily after close.
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Grey vertical bands = US recessions (NBER). Hover any chart's i icon for the underlying definition + source.
Risk-On Score
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Market Regime
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Methodology: ten trend, breadth, liquidity, volatility and Trend Exhaustion readings, plus two vetoes and a liquidity-cycle window.
RISK ON 60–100
WATCH 45–59
CAUTION 30–44
RISK OFF 0–29
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See the historical Risk-On chart and the regime behind today's reading
Free with email: past bearish and bullish confluence marks on the US Tech 100 and the monthly regime. Insider shows the regime live; Pro adds the ten readings underneath it.
TrendArc Regime Indicator™
US Tech 100
Above line = Bearish confluence Under line = Bullish confluence (rare deep low)
Range:
Indicator components: current state
Open readings always add to a warning score. Gated ones act only when their condition is met: a warning score of 60 or more reads CAUTION on its own, and RISK OFF needs 50 or more plus a confirmation, unless a veto holds it at CAUTION.
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Bitcoin Regime Indicator™
Regime
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Risk offRisk on
BTC price (log) with rare bearish and bullish confluence marks
Range:
Bearish confluence Bullish confluence ┊ halving · Rare marks from an amplitude-adaptive valuation model + the 500-day halving gate. Not financial advice.
Top Highlights
Most relevant nowUS 500 Earnings Revisions
Net EPS-growth breadth vs its normal · with US 500 price
US Liquidity Index
WALCL − TGA − RRP, in $B
High Yield OAS
ICE BofA HY option-adjusted spread, %
Market Leadership & Breadth
5 charts · free with sign-upLarge-Cap Momentum
MTUM − β·SPY · β-neutral daily excess · blue leading / red cracking
Growth vs Value
IWF − β·IWD · β-neutral daily excess · purple growth / orange value
Mega-Cap Concentration: Rate of Change
% change of SPY ÷ RSP concentration index · positive = narrowing breadth
US Tech 100 Real Breadth
% of US Tech 100 names above their 50-DMA
US Tech 100 1-Month % Change
Rolling 21-trading-day return · oversold < −10% / overbought > +10%
Free with email
Sign up free to unlock the Leadership & Breadth charts
Momentum, growth-vs-value and mega-cap concentration, β-neutral and updated daily. Free with email.
Liquidity & Macro Backbone
8 chartsGlobal CB Liquidity vs US Tech 100
Central bank balance sheets ($B, shifted +70d) vs US Tech 100 (log RHS)
US Liquidity vs BTC
WALCL − TGA − RRP − foreign RRP − BTFP + RE Loans (shifted +84d) vs bitcoin price
M2 Money Supply
Level ($B) with YoY % change bars
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
Total assets ($B) with YoY % change
Treasury General Account
Treasury balance at the Fed, $B
Overnight Reverse Repo (RRPONTSYD)
Cash parked at the Fed overnight, $B, daily since 2021
US Bank Securities Holdings
Treasury and agency securities at US commercial banks, $B: an eSLR-sensitive liquidity gauge
The Liquidity Cascade (Why Invest in Megatrends)
A shrinking workforce → rising federal debt → an expanding Fed balance sheet → rising global liquidity → rising high-beta assets (Megatrend Investments & US Tech). Each link is connected.
Labor Force Participation vs Federal Debt
US LFPR, % (L) · US debt as % of GDP (R, inverted)
Fed Net Liquidity vs Federal Debt
Fed net liquidity, $B (L, log) · US debt as % of GDP (R, log)
Fed Net Liquidity vs Global Liquidity
US Fed net liquidity, $B (L) · total global central-bank liquidity, $B (R)
Own Growth, Not Cash
Every asset divided by global central-bank liquidity, then indexed to 100, log · semis, tech, gold, 10Y & USD/EUR/JPY
Rates & Credit
6 charts2s10s Yield Spread
10Y minus 2Y Treasury, %. Zero line = inversion
US Treasury Yield Curve
3M→30Y · today vs 3M / 1Y / 2Y ago
Global 10Y Sovereign Yields
US · Germany · Japan · UK · benchmark 10Y, %
10Y − 3M Spread
The Fed's preferred recession gauge · zero = inversion
Corporate Credit Spreads
Moody's Baa & Aaa over 10Y, % · since 1986
10Y Real Yield (TIPS)
Inflation-protected 10Y yield · real cost of capital, %
Inflation, Commodities, FX
3 chartsCPI Year-over-Year
Headline CPI, % YoY
WTI Crude Oil
Spot price, $/bbl
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar against six major currencies
Activity & Sentiment
5 chartsFinancial Conditions (NFCI, inverted)
Chicago Fed NFCI · shifted +6mo · leads ISM
ISM Manufacturing PMI
50 line = expansion / contraction
Building Permits YoY
Rate-sensitive real-economy lead · Census building permits
Heavy Duty Truck Sales
Class 8 truck sales, units (recession indicator)
Fear & Greed: Crypto
Alternative.me composite, 0 to 100
Tape Internals
5 chartsUS 500 Median Short Interest
Median SI across the index, %
Mania Indicator
% of US stocks that doubled in a quarter · long-run median ≈ 0.2%
MOVE Index
Treasury implied volatility
Tech ETF Net Money-Flow (proxy)
XLK weekly accumulation/distribution, $B · Chaikin money-flow proxy · not fund flows / not retail
Investor Margin Debt ÷ Market Cap
FINRA margin debt as % of total US market cap · leverage gauge · monthly since 1997
Asia Exports (Leading)
2 chartsTaiwan Exports YoY
% YoY, leads the global goods cycle
Korea Exports YoY
% YoY, a coincident global trade signal
Valuation
2 chartsShiller CAPE
Cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio, US 500
US 500 Information Technology: Forward P/E
Sector forward 12-month P/E · 5-year lookback · vs 5Y & 10Y averages
Assets ÷ M2 (Real-Money Pricing)
4 chartsUS Tech 100 ÷ M2
US Tech 100 priced in money supply
Gold ÷ M2
Gold priced in money supply
BTC ÷ M2
Bitcoin priced in money supply
FX ÷ M2
DXY, CHF, EUR vs US money supply
Benchmarks
1 chartQQQ + SPY (1 year)
Indexed to 100 at start
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