MARKET REGIME · MACRO

The macro picture, live

Liquidity, rates, credit, breadth, valuation, sentiment — about thirty indicators we watch every day. Cached server-side, refreshed daily after close.

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Liquidity & Macro Backbone

7 charts

Global CB Liquidity vs NDX

Central bank balance sheets ($B) vs Nasdaq-100 (log RHS)

US Liquidity Index

WALCL − TGA − RRP, in $B

GMI Liquidity vs BTC

Global money index leads bitcoin price

M2 Money Supply

Level ($B) with YoY % change bars

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)

Total assets ($B) with YoY % change

Treasury General Account

Treasury balance at the Fed, $B

Overnight Repo (RPONTSYD)

Reverse repo facility, trailing 12 months

Rates & Credit

2 charts

2s10s Yield Spread

10Y minus 2Y Treasury, %. Zero line = inversion

High Yield OAS

ICE BofA HY option-adjusted spread, %

Inflation, Commodities, FX

3 charts

CPI Year-over-Year

Headline CPI, % YoY

WTI Crude Oil

Spot price, $/bbl

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Trade-weighted dollar

Activity & Sentiment

5 charts

ISM Manufacturing PMI

50 line = expansion / contraction

Heavy Duty Truck Sales

Class 8 truck sales, units (recession indicator)

BofA Fund Manager Cash %

Monthly survey — contrarian sentiment gauge

Fear & Greed — Stocks

CNN composite, 0–100

Fear & Greed — Crypto

Alternative.me composite, 0–100

Tape Internals

6 charts

NDX-100 Real Breadth

% of NDX names above their 50-DMA

Gamma Exposure (GEX)

SqueezeMetrics dealer gamma, $B

S&P 500 Median Short Interest

Median SI across the index, %

Quarterly Doubles

% of US stocks that doubled in a quarter — mania gauge

Bank Sector Stress

Composite of bank balance-sheet stress signals

MOVE Index

Treasury implied volatility

Asia Exports (Leading)

2 charts

Taiwan Exports YoY

% YoY — leads global goods cycle

Korea Exports YoY

% YoY — coincident global trade signal

Valuation

1 chart

Shiller CAPE

Cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio, S&P 500

Assets ÷ M2 (Real-Money Pricing)

4 charts

NDX ÷ M2

Nasdaq-100 priced in money supply

Gold ÷ M2

Gold priced in money supply

BTC ÷ M2

Bitcoin priced in money supply

FX ÷ M2

DXY, CHF, EUR vs US money supply

Benchmarks