About TrendArc

Market intelligence should not be a privilege.

TrendArc is an independent research house. We build the kind of charts, scores and macro research that professional investors pay for, and we make them accessible to every investor, at a price anyone can afford.

Market intelligence.Financial freedom.More time to live.

Our mission

“Make market intelligence universally accessible.”

At TrendArc, we believe everyone deserves the chance at a better life, with more time to live. But we live in an age of monetary debasement, where central banks aim for steady inflation and expand the money supply year after year. As the supply of money keeps growing, every dollar, euro and yen held as cash buys a smaller share of the world.

In that environment, financial freedom asks something of every investor: the focus to identify the growth assets that pull ahead of the debasement. That takes market intelligence. And we believe market intelligence should be universally accessible and affordable for everyone. This is why TrendArc exists.

Ten years, one yardstick

Standing still is falling behind.

Each line below is divided by global liquidity, the money created by the world’s largest central banks and banking systems, and set to 100 ten years ago, or in the month it began trading. Above 100, an asset grew faster than the money supply. Below it, the asset fell behind, even where its price went up.

Ten years against global liquidity

Index, 100 = global liquidity, logarithmic scale

Loading ten years of data…

Pulled ahead of the money supply

Bitcoin (BTC)
QQQ (US Tech 100: 100 large, mostly technology stocks)
Mag 7 fund (MAGS: seven US tech giants)
SPY (US 500: 500 of the largest US companies)
Gold (GLD, a gold fund)

Fell behind it

10-year Treasuries (IEF, a 7 to 10 year Treasury fund)
Swiss franc (cash)
Euro (cash)
US dollar (cash)
Japanese yen (cash)

Show the numbers

How it is measured

Each line shows the change over the window against global liquidity, TrendArc’s measure of the money in the system: the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve (net of the Treasury’s account and reverse repos), the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China, plus the US and Chinese money supply (M2), in US dollars. Cash is each currency held as cash, valued in dollars and earning nothing. IEF, SPY, QQQ, GLD and MAGS include reinvested interest and distributions. MAGS holds the seven US technology stocks known as the Magnificent Seven; it began trading in April 2023, so its line starts on the liquidity line that month. Bitcoin rose so far that it runs off the top of the scale; its figures are in the legend, the tooltip and the table.

It doesn’t take a crash to lose wealth. It only takes standing still. Over ten years, cash in dollars, euros, yen and Swiss francs fell far behind the money supply, and so did ten-year Treasuries. The assets that pulled ahead were the scarce ones and the growing ones. Finding them, and staying focused on them, is what market intelligence is for.

Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and other central banks; market data from Tiingo; calculations by TrendArc. Historical data, shown to illustrate debasement: past performance does not predict future results, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.

Why we built it

The best research has always come with a price tag.

Professional investors pay tens of thousands of dollars a year, per seat, for terminals, data and research. Individual investors carry the same risks with their own savings, yet most have been left with headlines, opinions and charts that stop where the real work begins.

Technology has changed the economics. Licensed market data, cloud computing and AI now let a small, focused team build research that once took a full desk of analysts, and deliver it to anyone with a browser. TrendArc is built on that shift: a free account costs nothing, and paid plans start below the price of a streaming subscription.

TrendArc Charts

See the whole trend, not just the last move.

Our full-screen charting workspace is built for long horizons as much as for today’s tape. Shown here: QQQ on monthly candles, with the Arc Channel, RSI and MACD.

Arc Channel

Fits a growth trend to the price on a logarithmic scale, over eight years of monthly candles (five of weekly, two of daily), with bands one and two standard deviations either side. It shows how far a price has stretched from its own trend, and how fast that trend has been growing.

Indicators

RSI, MACD, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, Williams %R, volume and more, next to our own studies: TrendArc Trend Exhaustion, which marks when a trend is statistically stretched, and TrendArc Confluence.

Every timeframe

Charts for 18,000+ stocks, funds and coins, from monthly candles down to one-minute bars wherever intraday data exists, with drawing tools, alerts and saved layouts.

The TrendArc Score

One model. One score. Every stock.

We believe in applying one model to every stock, and one score to every stock. The same rules run on every company after each trading day, so a reading means the same thing for a chipmaker as for a bank, and any two companies can be compared at a glance.

The TrendArc Score brings everything together in one number from 0 to 100: a helping hand for finding the companies that combine a strong business, a durable advantage and a market that has been rewarding them, across 2,000+ US stocks. It is a weighted average of the Health, Momentum and Moat factors, together with the long-run trend of the share price. The weights are ours; the inputs are below, and every stock’s card shows its readings.

Health

Is the business strong today?

Health reads the business as it stands over the last twelve months, never a single quarter, with margins judged against the company’s own industry.

Return on equity and free cash flow on equity, against a hurdle rate
Gross, operating, net, operating cash flow, free cash flow and overhead margins, each against industry peers
Self-funding and resilience: interest cover from operating cash flow, three years of free cash flow, net debt to EBITDA, share count discipline and years of profit
Growth per share, counted only as far as the business pays for it

Momentum

Is the market confirming it?

Price is the market’s running verdict. Momentum measures how strong and how persistent a stock’s trend is, on its own and against the market.

Relative strength against every stock we score, and against SPY over twelve months
Distance from the 40-week and 50-day moving averages, and from the 52-week high
Weekly MACD, RSI and Williams %R

Moat

Will the advantage last?

Moat looks across five years for evidence that an advantage is durable: a company that keeps investing, holds its margins and keeps its place in its industry.

Position in its industry
Investment durability: capital spending above depreciation, never cut back, and higher against sales than its peers
Margin durability: gross, operating, net, operating cash flow and free cash flow margins that held up or rose
Durable returns on capital

Scores describe what the data shows today and in the past. They are not forecasts, and they are not recommendations to buy or sell. A score can only be as high as its evidence: a company with a short record or missing figures cannot reach the top.

Our data

Licensed market data, primary sources and our own indices.

Market data partner

Tiingo

TrendArc licenses its market data from Tiingo, a financial data company founded in 2014 “with the mission of making high-end tools accessible to all.” It is a mission close to our own.

Tiingo combines multiple sources for its end-of-day prices and runs every data point through error checks, documenting each manual correction with its reason. Hedge funds, technology companies and individual investors build on its data. We use it for stock, fund and crypto prices, live and historical, and for company financial statements.

Market Data from Tiingo.com

Company filings

Annual, quarterly and current reports filed with the SEC (10-K, 10-Q and 8-K), read from EDGAR, for earnings, business segments and what management reports.

Economic data

Series published by the Federal Reserve Board, the US Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Census Bureau, the Energy Information Administration and other central banks and statistical agencies.

Our own calculations

Scores, indicators, ratios and the global liquidity measure are calculated by TrendArc from this data, by our own methods, so they can differ from figures published elsewhere.

In-house indices

Some indices on the site are our own, calculated by TrendArc under our own names.

TrendArc AI 100 Index. An equal-weight index of about 100 companies that receive the spending on artificial intelligence: semiconductors, power, optical networking, cooling and data-center build.

T-USDB, the TrendArc US Dollar Basket. The US dollar against six major currencies: the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona and the Swiss franc. Each day we take the closing exchange rates from our currency data feed (Tiingo) and combine them in a weighted average with fixed weights of our own, on a scale near 100. Before February 2021 the same calculation runs on the Federal Reserve Board's published daily exchange rates, so the history reaches back to 1999.

T-MVOL, TrendArc Market Volatility. The volatility the options market expects for the US 500 over the next 30 days, in percent a year, calculated by TrendArc every 15 minutes of the US trading day from the bid and ask quotes of US 500 index options, which reach us 15 minutes delayed; before October 27, 2026 its history is our own reconstruction from recorded trades in the same options.

Legal

How we publish.

TrendArc Invest LLC is an independent publisher of financial research and commentary. We publish under the publisher’s exclusion of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (Section 202(a)(11)(D)): what we publish is impersonal, bona fide, issued on a regular schedule, and the same for every reader.

We are not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. We do not give individualized advice, manage accounts or hold anyone’s money, and we never advise any individual on what to buy or sell. Scores and indicators describe what the data shows; they are not forecasts. TrendArc and its team may hold positions in securities covered on this site. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance does not predict future results.

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