ArcCount is an exhaustion timer. It reads a stock's own rhythm to flag the moment a run is likely to turn, and it's one of our most powerful indicators, among the most reliable signals in the TrendArc engine.
Markets don't run forever. ArcCount tracks a stock's price rhythm through two phases. First comes the setup: a run of bars all pushing the same direction, each closing further into the move than the bars just before it. When that streak reaches a count of nine, the trend is stretched and ArcCount goes on alert. Then the countdown begins, a slower, stricter tally that only advances on bars showing real follow-through past recent extremes. When it completes at thirteen, the move is exhausted: the trend has spent its energy and is primed to turn.
Purple is the standard completed countdown, a normal exhaustion. Pink is a stricter, higher-bar version of the same count that only prints when the exhaustion is exceptionally clean. Pink is rarer and more selective.
When the standard count and the strict count both complete on the same bar, you get a Double: two independent reads agreeing the top is in. It is the highest-conviction signal ArcCount produces.
Under the hood, ArcCount is a disciplined tally: the same rules on every stock and every timeframe. No opinions, no headlines, no curve-fitting. Just the price, counted.
ArcCount first waits for a stretched run: a sequence of bars pushing persistently one way, each closing further into the move than the bars just before it. When that streak reaches a count of nine, the trend is officially over-extended, and the countdown is armed.
Now a stricter tally begins. It ticks up only on bars that punch past recent extremes, genuine follow-through rather than drift or chop, so hesitating bars are skipped. It can take many bars to grind from one to thirteen; when it gets there, the move has run out of fuel.
ArcCount runs the countdown two ways at once: a standard read (purple) and a stricter read that demands cleaner exhaustion (pink). When both land on the same bar, that agreement is the double, its highest-conviction print.
The identical logic runs on weekly candles for shorter-term timing and on monthly candles for major, multi-year turns. A monthly signal is rarer and carries more weight; a weekly signal is more frequent and faster to play out.
Each ArcCount signal carries a confidence grade from Very High to Speculative, earned from how it has actually performed across hundreds of megatrend stocks over decade-plus timeframes.
Read each box as a band from likely to strong: how often it reached a modest move, and how often it ran on to a large one.
Performance figures are drawn from ArcCount's real-world signals across hundreds of megatrend stocks over decade-plus timeframes, using each signal's largest move in its own direction within six candles of the print. Grades reflect both how often a move occurred and how far it typically ran.
This is research, not investment advice. ArcCount is a timing-and-probability tool and is intended as complementary research only, never a standalone basis for any buy or sell decision. Its signals describe historical tendencies, not guarantees; markets can and do behave differently, and past performance does not predict future results. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. Nothing here is personalized financial advice, and TrendArc is not acting as your financial adviser.